Research axes

Responsibles:

Marc-André Bourgault, Université Laval

Maxime Boivin, UQAC

Description:

Hydro-meteorological hazards in the context of climate change), more long-term (e.g.. exposure due to development in a watershed; urbanization), or involving issues of economic and human development (e.g.. aging population, social and health inequality). The magnitude and speed of current and future changes at regional or local scales are all elements to be considered, requiring hydro-meteorological and psycho-socio-environmental observations and models (e.g.. meteorological, climatic, hydrological) of increasing sophistication. 

This requires the regular updating of data and the continuous development of models (for example, simultaneous forecasting at daily, seasonal, or even multi-year scales) and regular monitoring of the level of exposure of communities and infrastructure throughout Québec. By improving our knowledge of the various risk factors and their combination in time and space, including domino effects and breakpoints, the work of this axis will enable a more accurate and timely assessment of flood risks. This will enable policymakers to better understand how risk distribution evolves, promoting better flood prevention and preparedness. It will also contribute to improved development planning (Axis 2); more precise assessments of potential consequences of a flood in exposed areas according to the level of vulnerability of affected populations (Axis 3); help change our ways of doing things in concordance with principles of sustainable development, adaptivity and resilience (Axes 4 & 5); and more proactive and better-informed risk management (Axis 5).

General Objectives

1. Gain a better understanding of flood dynamics in the context of climate change, in light of past events.
2. Increase the predictability of floods, including those related to ice jams and coastal submersions.
3. Identify vulnerable populations and those most susceptible to the effects of flooding.
4. Assess how the combination of natural and human factors and their probable changes influence the flood risk at the level of the community.

Aims

1. Develop new post-processing tools for hydro-meteorological forecasting.
2. Develop new and more comprehensive criteria for defining alert thresholds (rate of flow, water levels, etc.) by hydrological and meteorological services.
3. Continuous evaluation of tools and co-authoring of user guides.
4. Contribute to the training of professionals (e.g.. emergency management, alert systems).
5. Develop comprehensive scenarios of floods at appropriate territorial (fine) scales.
6. Improve prevention and preparedness.

Responsibles:

Mario Gauthier, UQO

Pascale Biron, Université Concordia

Description:

Governmental bodies involved in cartography and the steering of the provincial agenda; metropolitan communities and regional county municipalities (RCMs), who are equally involved in cartography and are responsible for integrating the provincial agenda into their metropolitan plans and development strategies; and finally, cities and municipalities, via the adoption of urban planning regulations to manage land-use). This multi-level and multi-stakeholder governance system (including OBVs) is complex and should be examined for its effectiveness and shortcomings, including the land-use control system which requires evaluation and modernization. Research is required to update the territorial planning framework to take into account the specific nature of each territory (integrated and adapted management). The various stakeholders need support from researchers in order to conduct post-mortem analyses which can be used to improve preparative measures.

The challenges facing governing bodies on the ground can be divided into two categories. on the one hand, the preventive approach, and on the other, predictive approach, which includes preparatory measures. Parties in various positions and administrations must work together towards a shared, strategic plan which will allow them to act upstream and thus reduce the suffering, damage and costs resulting from a flood. Thereafter, there is the issue of the governance of emergency and recovery operations. The focus of this axis must be above all these preventive and preparative measures which occur before a flood, although it is possible that it may lead to work in the during and after phases. Preventive governance means drawing on the power and responsibilities of a number of individuals, and when responsibilities overlap this can sometimes lead to conflict, which can lead to significant delays. The diversity of parties at play has as a corollary the bursting and dispersion of available knowledge, which can lead to mutual misunderstandings. It is therefore key to understand that various stakes and to foster communication, collaboration, and aiding in decision-making. Land development and strategies associated to the planning of uncertainties equally constitute a major hurdle. Innovative ideas incorporating methods of sustainable development, such as multi-functional watercourse spaces, have the potential to promote population resilience. Such spaces can be developed by integrating our knowledge about landscape function and biodiversity. It will be equally necessary to develop legislative tools for prevention and adaptation strategies that will ensure their feasibility on the ground. It must be well-understand that given the highly variable character of the climate and the great number of lakes and rivers in Quebec, it is very likely that certain deviations from the norm (greater low-water flow, torrential rain, winter floods, etc.) will be more prevalent if we stick to a more traditional urban planning framework. The challenges of interdisciplinary are here combined with inter-professional challenges which affect decision-making.

General Objectives
Reduce the barriers to effective preventive governance that slow down, or even prevent decision-making or actions which would protect communities and their territory and reduce risks and damage.
Develop spatial planning tools that promote adaptation to climate change.
Promote the development of necessary legislation, in collaboration with local parties, which integrate relations and social capital.

Aims
Implement adaptation tools at different levels of governance.
Foster interdisciplinarity and the means of collaboration with the milieu.
Develop the legislative tools needed to reduce risk.

Responsible:

Nathalie De Marcellis-Warin, Polytechnique Montréal

Description:

(1) The financial responsibility of rising costs linked to natural disasters and damage to properties located in non-insurable flood zones; (2) how the financial burden 7 should be shared between municipalities and citizens; (3) investments in infrastructure. The work of Axis 3 oversees in an integrated manner the wide array of consequences of flooding, using innovative methods to measure and describe their effects.

General Objectives

1. Document the effects of flooding in the short, medium and long term on the global health of individuals and their community
2. Document the interdependence of (a) the physical, mental and social health of individuals; (b) the social characteristics of flood-affected areas; (c) the economic situation of communities; (d) the features of rising water levels.
3. Determine the factors of individual, collective and organizational adaptation and resilience with regards to floods.
4. Develop sharing schemas for the financial risk among citizens, private insurers, various levels of government and private and public partners.

Aims

1. Develop tools to model the relationship between different flood-related effects on the health of the population.
2. Review the scientific literature and available data collection tools to quickly document the fallout of floods on the health of the population.
3. Compose a guide of recommendations about effective interventions that can be put in place in order to diminish the impact of floods.

Responsibles:

Yona Jebrak, UQAM

Mélissa Généreux, Université de Sherbrooke

Description:

Floods disrupt the lives of the inhabitants, organizations, and the provision of municipal health services, both physical and psychosocial. Some individuals, because of their age or social, economic and/or health condition are more at risk of incurring material losses or physical harm, of dying, or of suffering other post-disaster repercussions. Organizations and municipalities which are poorly prepared to handle such a disaster due to either a lack of emergency plans, resources and/or of experienced personnel trained to intervene during a flood, are equally vulnerable. When we say the transformation and reduction of vulnerabilities we mean promoting the resilience of individuals, organizations and communities (IOC) to allow them to prepare for, resist and reconstruct after a flood. Vulnerable IOCs are more likely not to receive the services they require during the period of deployment of emergency service, not to use effective adaptation strategies and to develop more post-flood problems than those that have been less weakened by disturbing organizational or social factors.

In such a context, it is important to identify the various factors—personal (e.g. citizen engagement), contextual (e.g. the duration and extent of the damage), organizational (e.g. indemnity procedures), social (e.g. social capital, social networking), technological (e.g. infrastructure, alert systems), environmental (e.g. contamination), administrative, economic (e.g. debt, economic diversity), and political (e.g. the policies in place regarding the management and development of the territory)—likely to maintain, exacerbate, or diminish the vulnerability to, resilience against and coping with floods of Quebec society. Particular consideration must be given to the psychological and sociopolitical factors involved in the decision-making process leading to the adoption of coping behaviours and practices. More systematic studies must also take a look at factors which affect the capacity of organizations, communities and municipalities. There continues to be only limited information about these varied factors, which prohibits an efficient mobilization of knowledge in the service of public policy and the adaptation of public and community services. The research of this axis aims to develop knowledge which should aid in the 9 elaboration and application of measures designed to increase the ability of IOCs to cope during a natural disaster, and to prevent either the exacerbation of preexisting social, economic and political problems or the appearance of such problems in the aftermath of the disaster. In order to reduce the various vulnerability factors and to increase or promote the resilience of IOCs, it will be necessary to conduct intersectorial research projects as well as post-mortem analyses of the response to floods among a number of willing parties.

Responsibles:

Lisa Bornstein, McGill

Marie-Christine Therrien, ENAP

Description: